Budget context
Myanmar's defence budget is highly opaque under the State Administration Council (SAC) junta. Published figures cover only a fraction of actual military outlays, with supplementary funds flowing through MEHL corporate profits, natural resource rents, and off-budget transfers. SIPRI estimates total military expenditure at roughly $2.1 billion for 2025, representing approximately 3.8% of a GDP depressed by civil war and Western sanctions. Procurement spending has shifted sharply toward Russia — jet fighters, helicopters, and MLRS systems — while China supplies logistics vehicles, communications, and smaller arms. Domestic production at KaPaSa factories covers small arms and ammunition, but Myanmar remains overwhelmingly import-dependent for major systems.
Force structure
The Tatmadaw (Armed Forces of Myanmar) comprises the Army, Navy, and Air Force with an official strength near 350,000, though effective combat strength is considerably lower after three years of sustained losses to PDF and EAO forces. The Army dominates with light infantry divisions organized into Regional Military Commands. The Air Force operates Russian-supplied Su-30SME and Yak-130 aircraft, and has conducted extensive airstrikes against civilian areas. The February 2024 People's Military Service Law introduced mandatory conscription for men aged 18-35 (up to 5,000 per month), marking the first draft since independence — a sign of deepening manpower shortfalls.
Industrial posture
Myanmar's defence industrial base is minimal. State-run KaPaSa plants produce small arms, ammunition, and basic military vehicles but lack the capacity for advanced systems. MEHL and UMEHL (Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings) serve as military-owned conglomerates that finance procurement through extractive industries. Lacking domestic aerospace or electronics capability, Myanmar is entirely dependent on imports for aircraft, armoured vehicles, air defence, and naval vessels. Western sanctions have eliminated European and US suppliers; Russia and China now dominate the supply chain. Serbia supplied aircraft in prior years; North Korean technical assistance is suspected but unconfirmed.
Conflict exposure
Myanmar is engaged in one of Southeast Asia's most intense active conflicts. Since the 2021 coup, the resistance coalition — comprising the National Unity Government's PDF, the Three Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA, AA), and other EAOs — has seized significant territory in Shan, Chin, Rakhine, and Sagaing regions. Operation 1027 (October 2023) saw the Brotherhood Alliance overrun dozens of Tatmadaw outposts in northern Shan State. By 2025 the junta controlled less than 40% of the country by some estimates. Air power and artillery remain the SAC's principal asymmetric advantage; PDF and EAOs lack air defence, though shoulder-fired MANPADS have appeared.
Recent developments
In February 2024 the SAC enacted mandatory conscription — the first in Myanmar's post-independence history — reflecting acute manpower shortages after two years of heavy losses. The Arakan Army effectively consolidated control of most of Rakhine State by early 2025, threatening the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) southern terminus. Russia delivered additional Su-30SME fighters in late 2024. ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus remains unimplemented; UN arms embargo efforts have stalled at the Security Council due to Chinese and Russian vetoes. The junta postponed promised elections indefinitely in February 2025.