Iran Ceasefire Status
Iran Ceasefire Status
Day 34 of the Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire. Ceasefire "holding contested": Iranian drones struck MV Laya off Qatar and targeted UAE and Kuwait on May 10; Trump called Iran's counter-proposal "garbage" and declared the ceasefire "on massive life support" on May 11. 4th round Oman talks (Araghchi/Witkoff) concluded May 11 — "difficult but constructive." US imposed nuclear/missile sanctions May 12. Naval blockade continues; no formal peace agreement.
Each notch = a status-changing event. Wire still intact since Apr 8.
Ceasefire "holding contested": Iranian drones struck MV Laya off Qatar and targeted UAE and Kuwait on May 10; Trump called Iran's counter-proposal "garbage" and declared the ceasefire "on massive life support" on May 11. 4th round Oman talks (Araghchi/Witkoff) concluded May 11 — "difficult but constructive." US imposed nuclear/missile sanctions May 12. Naval blockade continues; no formal peace agreement.
Status-Changing Events
Green = strengthening the ceasefire. Red = weakening. Amber = neutral / ambiguous.
Ceasefire announced (Pakistan-brokered)
Pakistan's PM announces a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel, and Iran. White House declares major combat objectives met. Initial terms include mutual cessation of strikes and phased Hormuz reopening.
source: Al Jazeera →Iranian missiles and drones strike Gulf states hours later
Within hours of the announcement, Iran-linked ballistic missiles and drones strike targets in UAE and Qatar; Kuwait intercepts 28 drones, UAE intercepts 35. Tehran frames the strikes as pre-ceasefire volleys; Gulf states call them violations.
source: Al Jazeera →First 48 hours — no new US-Iran strikes
No US-Iran direct strikes in the 48 hours following the ceasefire. Carrier groups remain on station; Iranian air defenses remain active but no launches detected.
source: CENTCOM →Islamabad talks collapse; Trump announces naval blockade
After 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad, Vice President Vance declares talks failed to produce an agreement. Trump announces a full naval blockade of Iranian ports, stopping all ships entering or leaving. Pakistan continues mediation efforts.
source: Al Jazeera →Sanctioned tankers resume Hormuz transits
Al Jazeera and Lloyd's List report sanctioned tanker transits resuming in limited numbers. War-risk premiums begin easing from peaks.
source: Lloyd's List →Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire takes effect; Iran still rejects IAEA terms
Trump announces a US-brokered 10-day Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire effective April 16. Separately, Tehran continues to reject Pentagon-proposed IAEA inspection terms for Natanz and Fordow; IAEA has had zero access to Iran's declared enrichment facilities since late February.
source: Al Jazeera →Iran re-closes Hormuz; USS Spruance seizes M/V Touska
Iran blocks most Hormuz passage citing US "breaches of trust." USS Spruance fires into the engine room of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska after a six-hour standoff in the Gulf of Oman; US Marines board and seize the vessel. Iran calls the action "armed piracy" and vows retaliation. Brent crude surges ~7%. Carrier groups move to higher readiness.
source: Al Jazeera →Iran refuses new talks; ceasefire at brink; drone attacks reported
Iran's Foreign Ministry formally states it has "no plan" to send negotiators to Islamabad for a second round of talks. Iranian state media report drone attacks targeting US naval vessels in the Sea of Oman — CENTCOM has not confirmed damage or casualties. Trump says the ceasefire ends "Wednesday evening Washington time" and calls extension "highly unlikely."
source: CNBC →Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely
Reversing his Apr 20 framing, Trump signs an executive directive extending the cessation of hostilities indefinitely. No formal peace agreement, but no expiration date either. Carrier groups remain forward-deployed; naval blockade of Iranian ports continues.
source: CNBC →IRGC seizes MV Epaminondas and MSC Francesca
IRGC fast-attack craft seize two cargo vessels in the Gulf of Oman — the first vessel seizures attributed to Iran since the war began. Tehran calls them an "in-kind response" to the US Touska seizure. Brent jumps to ~$118.
source: Al Jazeera →Baker Hughes: Hormuz reopening unlikely before H2 2026
Baker Hughes CEO tells CNBC normal commercial Strait flow will not return before the second half of 2026. ~2,000 ships reported stranded. Underwriters quote "no-go" for non-sanctions-cleared transits.
source: CNBC →Pentagon comptroller: $25B war cost confirmed
At House Armed Services Committee testimony, Defense Secretary Hegseth and the Pentagon comptroller place direct war costs at $25B through Apr 28. Internal CRS estimates run $40–50B. Penn Wharton revises projection to $38–47B base case.
source: NBC News →Brent peaks at $126 on continued Hormuz disruption
Crude tops $126/bbl on ongoing Hormuz constraints and Iran rejection of new IAEA terms. Pulled back to ~$108 May 1 after Iran sent a new peace proposal via Pakistan.
source: CNBC →Trump declares hostilities "terminated" in War Powers letter
In a War Powers Act letter to Congress, Trump formally declares hostilities with Iran "terminated" for War Powers purposes. The letter triggers the 60-day clock and effectively closes the Apr 28 statutory deadline. Carrier groups remain forward-deployed and the naval blockade continues; Iran sends a fresh peace proposal via Pakistani mediators the same day.
source: The Hill →Iran submits 14-point peace proposal via Pakistan
Tehran delivers a 14-point plan through Pakistani mediators calling for a permanent end to the war within 30 days. Key Iranian demands: guaranteed uranium enrichment rights, US troop withdrawal from the region, sanctions relief and release of frozen assets, war reparations, and a "new mechanism" for Hormuz navigation. The plan contains no nuclear concessions — Iran states nuclear talks are a separate track. Trump says he is "reviewing" the proposal but it is "not acceptable."
source: Al Jazeera →Trump launches "Project Freedom" Hormuz escort operation
Trump announces "Operation Project Freedom" — US Navy guided-missile destroyers, 100+ aircraft, and multi-domain drones will protect commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. On launch day, US forces sink seven to eight Iranian fast-attack boats threatening merchant ships. HMM Namu (South Korean-flagged) struck by explosion and catches fire near UAE anchorage. Two US-flagged vessels successfully transit under escort. Iran calls the operation a ceasefire violation. UAE intercepts Iranian missiles and drones for a second consecutive day.
source: Al Jazeera →Trump pauses Project Freedom citing Iran deal "great progress"
Hours after a French-company vessel is struck attempting Hormuz without Iranian clearance, Trump announces Project Freedom is "temporarily paused by mutual agreement" while peace talks advance. Blockade of Iranian ports remains in full effect. Pentagon Secretary Hegseth insists "the ceasefire is not over." Saudi Arabia separately denies US airspace and base access for the operation, calling it "not well thought-out." ~1,550 ships remain stranded.
source: Al Jazeera →Rubio declares Operation Epic Fury concluded; US-Iran one-page memo reported
Secretary of State Rubio tells reporters: "The Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation." Trump simultaneously posts that Epic Fury is "at an end" only if Iran "agrees to give what has been agreed to," otherwise "the bombing starts…at a much higher level." Reports emerge that US and Iran are "closing in on a one-page memo to end the war" via Pakistani intermediaries. US Navy F/A-18 disables Iranian tanker M/T attempting to breach the blockade.
source: Al Jazeera →US-Iran fire exchange in Hormuz; strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm
Iran launches "multiple missiles, drones and small boats" at USS Truxtun (DDG-103), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG-115), and USS Mason (DDG-87) transiting the Strait. CENTCOM reports no US assets struck and launches retaliatory strikes on missile/drone launch sites, command-and-control nodes, and ISR facilities at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. Iran claims to have caused "significant damage" to US vessels east of Hormuz — CENTCOM denies this. Trump calls the exchange "just a love tap" and says the ceasefire remains in place. Brent crude surges ~7.5% to ~$101/bbl. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait temporarily restrict US military base access.
source: Stars and Stripes →US presents counter 14-point proposal; Iran reviewing; ceasefire "day 70"
Washington delivers its own 14-point document to Tehran via Pakistan: Iran must halt uranium enrichment for 12 years, hand over ~440 kg of 60%-enriched uranium stock; in return, the US would lift sanctions gradually, release frozen assets, and withdraw the naval blockade as compliance milestones are met. Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf calls the plan "more of an American wish-list than reality." Iran states it is "reviewing" the document. Trump posts on Truth Social threatening "escalated military action" if Iran does not quickly agree, calling Iranian leadership "lunatics." Ceasefire enters Day 70 with no formal peace agreement.
source: Al Jazeera →Iran delivers counter-proposal; drones strike MV Laya off Qatar; UAE and Kuwait intercept UAVs
Iran sends its formal response to the US 14-point plan via Pakistan. Tehran's counter-proposal demands: end to war on all fronts including Lebanon, compensation for war damage, recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of the US naval blockade, guarantees against future strikes, full sanctions removal, and end to the Iranian oil sales ban. Trump calls the response "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." Same day, an Iranian drone sets fire to MV Laya (Liberian-flagged bulk carrier) in Qatari waters 23 nm northeast of Doha — crew extinguished the blaze, no casualties. UAE intercepts two Iranian drones; Kuwait intercepts two more. LNG carrier Al Kharaitiyat transits Hormuz via Iranian-permitted northern route, suggesting Iran is selectively granting passage.
source: Maritime Executive →Trump: ceasefire "on massive life support"; 4th round Oman talks conclude
Trump declares the ceasefire is "on massive life support" and calls Iran's response "the weakest right now after reading that piece of garbage they sent us," adding "I didn't even finish reading it." The fourth round of US-Iran talks takes place in Muscat, Oman — Foreign Minister Araghchi and US envoy Steve Witkoff lead three-hour negotiations brokered by Omani FM Badr al-Busaidi. Iran proposes a joint nuclear-enrichment project with regional Arab states and US investment as an alternative to dismantling its program; Witkoff denies this is under discussion. Both sides call talks "difficult but constructive" and agree to continue. Iran's FM spokesman Baghaei defends demands as "reasonable" and "legitimate." Talks precede Trump's planned Middle East visit.
source: Al Jazeera →US imposes new sanctions on Iranian nuclear and missile procurement networks
The US Treasury imposes new sanctions targeting Iranian entities and individuals involved in nuclear research with possible military applications and ballistic missile/UAV procurement networks. Entities and individuals in China, Iran, Belarus, and the UAE are designated for enabling Iran's military to secure weapons and raw materials for missile and drone programs. No new direct US-Iran military strikes reported.
source: The Hill →Frequently Asked Questions
Is the US-Iran war over?
Not formally. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire took effect April 8, 2026. Secretary of State Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury "concluded" on May 6. The ceasefire is "holding contested": Iranian drones struck MV Laya off Qatar and targeted UAE and Kuwait on May 10; Trump called Iran's counter-proposal "garbage" and said the ceasefire was "on massive life support" on May 11. The 4th round of Oman-mediated talks (Araghchi/Witkoff) concluded May 11 — "difficult but constructive." US imposed new nuclear/missile sanctions May 12. No formal peace agreement has been signed; carrier groups remain forward-deployed.
When did the Iran ceasefire start?
April 8, 2026. Terms were brokered by Pakistan's government after roughly six weeks of active combat. The initial two-week agreement was extended indefinitely on April 21, and Trump's May 1 War Powers letter formally declared hostilities "terminated."
Have there been violations of the ceasefire?
Yes. Within hours of the April 8 announcement, Iranian ballistic missiles struck UAE and Qatar — Iran claims these were pre-ceasefire volleys already in flight. On April 19, Iran restricted most Strait of Hormuz transits. On May 7, Iran launched missiles, drones, and fast-attack boats at three US Navy destroyers; the US struck Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. On May 10, an Iranian drone struck MV Laya (bulk carrier) off Qatar, setting a fire; separate drones targeted UAE and Kuwait, both intercepted. Trump has called the exchanges "love taps" and maintained the ceasefire is in place, but labeled it "on massive life support" on May 11.
Who brokered the Iran ceasefire?
Pakistan's government, with quiet coordination from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman. The framework explicitly excluded direct US-Iran negotiations; Pakistan relayed terms between Washington and Tehran.
What are the terms of the ceasefire?
Publicly disclosed terms: (1) mutual cessation of strikes; (2) phased Hormuz reopening; (3) US troop posture reduction pending compliance; (4) IAEA inspection access to Natanz and Fordow. Iran has rejected the inspection terms; Hormuz reopening stalled and reversed on April 19.
What happens if the ceasefire collapses?
CSIS analysis suggests a return to near-peak combat tempo (~$500M-$1.9B/day US spending) within 48 hours. Oil prices would likely retest the $118-$150/bbl peak. Carrier groups remain within striking range. Both sides retain retaliation options, including Iranian-backed proxy action in Iraq and Syria.
Does the cost tracker account for Iran rebuilding air defenses during the ceasefire?
No — and it should be treated as a known limit of the phased model. The $500M/day Phase 2 rate assumed US air dominance and a JDAM-dominant munitions mix. Iran is expected to reconstitute surface-to-air missile sites, radars, and interceptor stockpiles during any pause, as observed in Iraq 1991–2003, Libya, and Serbia post-conflict rebuilds. A resumption of combat would force another expensive SEAD/DEAD phase — stand-off cruise missiles, anti-radiation missiles, and interceptor expenditure — before the US could revert to cheap gravity bombs. Rough estimate: the first 2–3 weeks of a resumption could run 2–4x the current sustained rate. Caveat added after a reader methodology question from r/geopolitics, April 21, 2026.
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