Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Strait of Hormuz Closure Tracker
Real-time status, oil price impact, tanker war-risk premiums, and Cape of Good Hope rerouting costs since the IRGC announced closure on March 2, 2026.
Roughly 13 million barrels per day of crude move through the Strait of Hormuz, about one-fifth of global oil consumption. The IRGC announced closure to US and Israel-allied shipping on March 2, 2026. The IEA has called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on April 8 allowed partial reopening; Iran restricted most passage again on April 19.
Oil Price Impact
Shipping & Insurance
How insurance, fleet routing, and container rates moved after March 2.
War-risk premium (VLCC)
Pre-crisis: ~0.125% of hull value per transit. Peak March 2026: 2.5–5% of hull — translating to ~$5M per VLCC transit. Current (April): ~1%, ~$2M per transit. The US reportedly backstopped cover where private capacity withdrew.
Cape of Good Hope rerouting
Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd suspended Gulf transits. Cape route adds ~3,800 nautical miles and 10–14 days per voyage. Industry estimates: ~$40–50M per week in added fuel and insurance fleet-wide.
Container spot rates
Up ~150% on major Asia–Europe and Asia–US East Coast lanes since February 28. CNBC: normalization "weeks, if not months" even under ceasefire.
Supply disruption
IEA: >360 Mb cumulative supply loss in March, ~440 Mb projected for April. Normal Hormuz flow is ~13 Mb/d, ~20% of global consumption.
Timeline
Gunboats fire on tankers; ceasefire near collapse
IRGC gunboats fire on transiting tankers Apr 19. Trump seizes Iranian vessel; calls ceasefire extension "highly unlikely." Expiry set Apr 22.
Iran formally re-closes Hormuz
Iran announces Strait has "returned to its previous state," citing ongoing US port blockade as ceasefire breach. Brent rebounds ~7% to ~$95.
Sanctioned tankers transiting
Al Jazeera reports continued sanctioned tanker transits despite residual US blockade posture; premiums ease from peaks.
Ceasefire (Pakistan-brokered)
Two-week ceasefire announced. Container and tanker operators signal phased return but warn of "weeks, if not months" to normalize.
Iran confirms Tangsiri death
IRGC confirms commander died of injuries. Sanctioned tanker transits resume in limited numbers under escort.
Tangsiri killed in Bandar Abbas
Israeli strike kills IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri, identified as architect of the Hormuz blockade. Aides killed alongside.
Natanz strike, retaliation
US bunker-busters hit Natanz. Iran strikes Dimona. Closure enforcement tightens around Bandar Abbas.
Brent hits $118/bbl
Futures peak; physical cargoes reported near $150/bbl. Goldman models >$100 Brent through 2026 if closure persists another month.
Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd reroute
Top container lines suspend Gulf transits; cargoes redirected via Cape of Good Hope, adding ~3,800 nautical miles and 10–14 days.
War-risk cover withdrawn
Major underwriters withdraw or reprice war-risk cover. Premiums jump from ~0.2% to ~1% of hull value per transit within 48 hours.
IRGC announces Hormuz closure
Iran declares strait closed to US and Israel-allied shipping. Brent futures spike intraday; physical cargoes trade at wide premium.
Operation Epic Fury begins
US-Israel joint strikes on Iran trigger immediate shipping insurer repricing across the Gulf.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Strait of Hormuz open in April 2026?
Effectively closed as of Apr 18, 2026. IRGC announced original closure Mar 2. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire Apr 8 allowed limited reopening, but Iran formally re-closed on Apr 18 citing the ongoing US port blockade as a ceasefire breach. IRGC gunboats fired on transiting tankers Apr 19. The ceasefire expires Apr 22; Trump called an extension "highly unlikely." Major container lines remain rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope.
How much did Brent oil prices rise after the Hormuz closure?
Brent futures peaked near $118–$120/bbl in March 2026 — roughly a 64% spike from pre-closure levels around $72/bbl — while physical cargoes (North Sea Dated spot) reached near $130/bbl and physical crude traded as high as $150/bbl at the peak (IEA, April 2026). By mid-to-late April, front-month Brent futures recovered to ~$95, with Iran's Apr 18 re-closure driving a 7% single-day rebound.
How much does war-risk insurance cost for a tanker through Hormuz?
War-risk premiums jumped from ~0.125% of hull value pre-crisis to as high as 2.5–5% at peak — translating to single-transit premiums in the low-millions to ~$5M for a VLCC. By late March and April, rates eased toward ~1% (≈$2M per VLCC transit), still an order of magnitude above historical norms. The US government has reportedly backstopped some coverage where private capacity withdrew.
How many tankers have been rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope?
Major container operators — Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd — redirected Middle East–Europe and Middle East–US East Coast services around the Cape of Good Hope. The reroute adds ~3,800 nautical miles and 10–14 days per voyage, with industry estimates of ~$40–50M per week in added fuel, insurance, and bunker costs across the fleet. Spot container rates rose ~150% since February 28.
Who was Alireza Tangsiri?
Alireza Tangsiri commanded the IRGC Navy from August 2018. Israeli and US officials identified him as the architect of the Hormuz blockade. He was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Bandar Abbas on March 26, 2026, alongside several senior naval aides. Iran confirmed his death on March 30.
How big is the supply disruption?
The IEA has characterized the Hormuz disruption as the largest in the history of the global oil market. Cumulative supply losses exceeded 360 million barrels in March with ~440 Mb projected for April. Roughly 13 million barrels per day of flow normally transits Hormuz — about one-fifth of global oil consumption.
Related Trackers
Sources & Methodology
All figures are drawn from publicly available reporting and agency releases (IEA, Lloyd's List, S&P Global, UNCTAD, Dallas Fed, major wires). Forward-looking figures — current-day Brent estimate, continuing insurance premia — are estimates and should be independently verified before citation.
Distribution
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